ROME – Italy’s political crisis, already a month old, could drag on for at least several more weeks and is now inextricably tied up with the vote for a successor to President Giorgio Napolitano, the man in charge of finding a solution.
An election on Feb 24-25 pushed Italy into limbo with a huge protest vote for the populist 5-Star Movement splitting parliament three ways, wrecking the established bipolar system and leaving no group with enough support to rule alone.
Under the constitution, it is up to the president to sort out the mess, but Napolitano’s own 7-year term ends in six weeks and his successor must be elected by the divided new parliament.
Center-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani has a majority in the lower house but not in the Senate and has rebuffed repeated overtures from center-right leader Silvio Berlusconi to form a grand coalition with him.
Beppe Grillo refuses to vote confidence in any government led by the traditional parties 
Beppe Grillo refuses to vote confidence in any government led by the traditional parties
In turn, 5-Star leader Beppe Grillo rejects Bersani’s attempt to form an alliance with the left.
Hopes of a solution now appear to depend on Berlusconi and Bersani reaching some kind of deal over the presidential election, which will begin on April 18. Any deal could clear the way for a government. Otherwise Italy will head for elections, possibly as soon as June-July but more likely in the autumn.
So far, despite some tentative signs of dissent inside his 5-Star Movement, there seems little chance of a break from Grillo’s refusal to vote confidence in any government led by the traditional parties.
If Berlusconi and Bersani do not agree on a president, then the latter could join with Grillo in electing a figure seen as hostile to the billionaire media magnate. Center-left former prime minister Romano Prodi is increasingly being mentioned. After three votes a simple majority of the combined houses of parliament plus representatives of the regions is enough to elect a new president, so Bersani plus Grillo could do this.
The ball would then go into the new president’s court. He might briefly try to oversee the formation of a new government but a bellicose break with Berlusconi by Bersani would make that even less likely.
Otherwise the new head of state would be obliged to dissolve the new parliament and call elections, despite the fact that business leaders, economists and many of the public think this would be a disaster for the economy by delaying decisive action. It has also been strongly opposed by Napolitano.
If a government is formed, it would likely last as little as 6-12 months, but could pass some essential, widely agreed reforms, notably the repeal of a dysfunctional electoral law which was a major cause of the current impasse. It would also be able to perhaps pass pro-growth measures to start reversing Italy’s grave recession.
If a political deal fails, there is still a slight possibility of a technocrat government, sponsored by the president, like the outgoing administration of Mario Monti. But that is widely opposed and Napolitano is very reluctant to bequeath his choice of prime minister to his successor.
The calling of elections is likely to accelerate an attempt by the market-friendly new face Matteo Renzi to topple Bersani.
Renzi, 38, a dynamic campaigner, could be a game-changer by robbing both Berlusconi and Grillo of votes. However his leadership might also fatally divide the center-left, causing its left wing to break away, and weakening it in an election.
But Renzi could stay in play if an election is delayed for longer, giving him more time to overthrow the other politicians and become the new face of Italy.
Donate